An Evaluation of Errors in Energy Forecasts by the SARFIMA Model
Abstract
Forecasting is tricky business. This is particularly true in the energy field, where the highly random behavior of energy prices and technological change make forecasting difficult. In this paper, we study the long memory characteristic using Higuchi method and establish SARFIMA model to forecast consumption of petroleum products in U.S. Furthermore, we apply an error decomposition technique to study errors in energy forecasts by the SARFIMA model. The results indicate the SARFIMA model give precise predictions.
Full Text: PDF
Abstract
Forecasting is tricky business. This is particularly true in the energy field, where the highly random behavior of energy prices and technological change make forecasting difficult. In this paper, we study the long memory characteristic using Higuchi method and establish SARFIMA model to forecast consumption of petroleum products in U.S. Furthermore, we apply an error decomposition technique to study errors in energy forecasts by the SARFIMA model. The results indicate the SARFIMA model give precise predictions.
Full Text: PDF
Browse Journals
Journal Policies
Information
Useful Links
- Call for Papers
- Submit Your Paper
- Publish in Your Native Language
- Subscribe the Journal
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Contact the Executive Editor
- Recommend this Journal to Librarian
- View the Current Issue
- View the Previous Issues
- Recommend this Journal to Friends
- Recommend a Special Issue
- Comment on the Journal
- Publish the Conference Proceedings
Latest Activities
Resources
Visiting Status
 Today |
233 |
| Yesterday |
146 |
| This Month |
519 |
| Last Month |
5705 |
 All Days |
1008349 |
 Online |
14 |
